$MRVL's investor day gave us a five-year roadmap for the photonics supply chain.
Management is targeting more than $30 in non-GAAP EPS by FY2031.
At yesterday’s Investor Day, Xi Wang described Marvell’s position in 1.6T optical connectivity:
“Today, we are at 1.6T generation, shipping in high volume, leading our competitor by two years and counting.”
That buildout also needs lasers, transceivers and silicon photonics manufacturing. The opportunity extends across $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CIEN $TSEM and $ALAB.
We followed Marvell’s roadmap through the supply chain and modeled what these businesses could be worth by 2030, accounting for their different growth markets, valuations and dilution.
Full breakdown below ↓
Image 1 ↗
The original is long; open it to read in full
Reasoning: Fundamentals · Long term Specific
Price at post time (as recorded): $TSEM 246.13
$MRVL is the first company that's given visibility into photonics through 2030.
Revenue was $8.2B last year and the fiscal 2031 target is $70B to $90B. The TAM is 4x last investor day. Interconnect becomes the biggest segment at ~$37.5B
Now think about what this means for the suppliers. Nobody else in the photonics supply chain has guided out to 2030, but they all ride the same curves.
$LITE's CEO says they'll only be able to supply 30% of what customers want next year. Coherent's booked through the end of 2027.
So 
@AsymmetricBets_ ran Marvell's model on the 6 biggest beneficiaries: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CIEN $TSEM $ALAB
Each one grows at its own market's rate, gets valued off historical multiples and has dilution baked in.
Bear, base and bull 2030 targets for all 7 are on my Substack below.
Image 1 ↗
The original is long; open it to read in full
Reasoning: Fundamentals · Long term Specific
Price at post time (as recorded): $TSEM 245.72
Fund flows or trade records mentioned in posts reflect only the account’s own claims, are marked “Per the post” and are unverified.
@michaelsikand
@KawzInvests