Neutral First call 7d: weakened
Fundamentals · Medium term · TSMC $TSM reported Q3 revenue of $46.72 billion, up 41.1% YoY and beating estimates for $45.7 billion. For Q4, TSMC guided for revenue to be $52.3-$54.3 billion, up 58% YoY and above estimates for $50.5 billion. Mentions $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $AAPL.
Neutral weakened (was Bullish)
Sentiment · Interesting to see Elon interacting with finance X accounts. Amplifying $CRWV financing concerns, Chinese memory flooding, to AI investors being gamblers recently. With $SPCX and $TSLA, Elon is a visionary but amplifying concerns about competitors makes their financing more difficult as a self-fulfilling prophecy. Multiple posts about Chinese memory flooding after calling Samsung/SK Hynix pricing extortion harms these supplier valuations. Economic incentives probably benefit Tesla/SpaceX more in the long run even if everything goes down together. Merit to concerns about Coreweave debt interest + rate hikes. Nuances of "No crying in a Casino" when $AVGO CEO comments were regarding OpenAI ARR datapoints were missed. Can throw rocks at others when a glass house is propped up by passive index flows.
Bullish First call
Fundamentals · Medium term · Anthropic reportedly grew Q3 revenue 46% to $16.8B while telling investors it was cash flow positive for the quarter. This gives Anthropic a stronger foundation to support its ~$518B in long term compute commitments while improving demand visibility for $AVGO, $GOOGL and $AMZN.
Neutral First call
Technicals · Price charts for mega-cap Tech holding up well outside of $AVGO. $MU now at a key inflection point.
Bullish First call
Fundamentals · Long term ·
@GavinSBaker: the ~$400 billion of commitments in the Anthropic S-1 are $31 billion of annual cloud spend over 7 to 10 years, easily funded by Anthropic's revenue, plus $161 billion in Broadcom commitments financed by Broadcom and private credit.
Neutral First call
Macro · AI investors when $AVGO CEO calls them gamblers but there's only a 1/5 chance of a recession next year. Quoted: BREAKING: 21% chance of a recession next year
Bullish First call
Fundamentals · Medium term · (Reposted by
@firstadopter)
I@illyquid cites The Standard in Hong Kong: Intel and Broadcom chiefs say chip demand is still strong and OpenAI is not overvalued.
Neutral First call
Basis not tagged ·
@amitisinvesting's daily recap: $META unveiled its Muse Wonder AI models, $AVGO CEO Hock Tan likened many AI investors to casino gamblers, and $ONDS and $PLTR launched Regna AI for edge defense models. $SPY traded just 18.3M shares, its lowest full-session volume since Dec 26, 2003, and breadth is weak, with 84% of S&P 500 stocks at least 10% below their highs while the index sits 0.2% below its record; 42 AI-related stocks drove 67% of the index's return since 2024. The post also mentions $GOOGL simplifying Gemini but is cut off.
Bullish First call
Fundamentals · Long term ·
@KawzInvests notes $AVGO’s photonics roadmap goes from 25.6T in 2022 to 102.4T in 2026, with next-generation optical compute interconnect on the roadmap for 2028.
Neutral First call
Sentiment ·
@carlquintanilla relays Bloomberg's report that $AVGO CEO Hock Tan said a lot of investors have no clue what they are investing in, setting very extreme expectations only to find it is almost like being in a casino.
Neutral First call
Valuation · Price to Sales Ratio (TTM Sales) lists SpaceX at 103, Palantir at 87, CrowdStrike at 52, AMD at 24, Broadcom at 20, NVIDIA at 19, Applied Materials at 13, Tesla at 13, Microsoft at 12, Apple at 11, Google at 10, Micron at 9, Intel at 9, Meta at 8, Cisco at 7, Netflix at 6, Oracle at 6, Amazon at 4, and S&P 500 at 3.5.
Neutral First call
Macro · The AI selloff was a credit story wearing a revenue costume.
OpenAI's run rate: near $50B, not the $70B circulated. Same day, Broadcom and Oracle were lining up chip financing.
Debt-funded capex prices off the long bond. The 30-year just cleared at 5.618%.
$ORCL $AVGO $TLT
Neutral First call
Macro · Long term · BREAKING: The "AI Big 10" now accounts for a record 42% of US stock market cap.
This includes Magnificent 7 stocks as well as Broadcom, $AVGO, AMD, $AMD, and Micron, $MU.
This figure has more than doubled since the 2022 bear market low.
By comparison, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, the Technology, Media & Telecom (TMT) sector peaked at 41%, while the Nifty Fifty peaked at 40% in the 1970s.
Furthermore, Japan’s equity market bubble in the 1980s peaked at 44%.
In the past, only railroad stocks have significantly exceeded this concentration, accounting for 63% of US market cap at their highest point in the 1900s.
The dominance of Big Tech is extraordinary.
Neutral First call
Catalyst · Short term · has anyone tried asking AI to just print real money
Bullish First call
Technicals · Short term · $AVGO
Finally patience pays
Solid day at https://tenetresearch.ai