$LITE showing ecosystem forming around near-package optics. Open CPX founders include Ciena $CIEN, Coherent $COHR and Marvell $MRVL, alongside others. Publicly traded contributors: Credo $CRDO, Intel $INTC, MaxLinear $MXL, Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI, Astera Labs $ALAB, Amphenol $APH, Keysight $KEYS, TE Connectivity $TEL, VIAVI $VIAV, Lumentum $LITE.
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$LITE showing the ecosystem forming around near-package optics.
Open CPX founders include Ciena $CIEN, Coherent $COHR and Marvell $MRVL, alongside Molex, Samtec and TeraHop.
Publicly traded contributors shown here include
Credo $CRDO
Intel $INTC
MaxLinear $MXL
Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI
Astera Labs $ALAB
Amphenol $APH
Keysight $KEYS
TE Connectivity $TEL
VIAVI $VIAV
Lumentum $LITE
NPO reuses the existing pluggable supply chain, making it much easier to scale.
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Reasoning: Fundamentals
$MRVL's investor day gave us a five-year roadmap for the photonics supply chain.
Management is targeting more than $30 in non-GAAP EPS by FY2031.
At yesterday’s Investor Day, Xi Wang described Marvell’s position in 1.6T optical connectivity:
“Today, we are at 1.6T generation, shipping in high volume, leading our competitor by two years and counting.”
That buildout also needs lasers, transceivers and silicon photonics manufacturing. The opportunity extends across $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CIEN $TSEM and $ALAB.
We followed Marvell’s roadmap through the supply chain and modeled what these businesses could be worth by 2030, accounting for their different growth markets, valuations and dilution.
Full breakdown below ↓
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The original is long; open it to read in full
Reasoning: Fundamentals · Long term Specific
Price at post time (as recorded): $CIEN 446.69
$MRVL is the first company that's given visibility into photonics through 2030.
Revenue was $8.2B last year and the fiscal 2031 target is $70B to $90B. The TAM is 4x last investor day. Interconnect becomes the biggest segment at ~$37.5B
Now think about what this means for the suppliers. Nobody else in the photonics supply chain has guided out to 2030, but they all ride the same curves.
$LITE's CEO says they'll only be able to supply 30% of what customers want next year. Coherent's booked through the end of 2027.
So 
@AsymmetricBets_ ran Marvell's model on the 6 biggest beneficiaries: $LITE $COHR $AAOI $CIEN $TSEM $ALAB
Each one grows at its own market's rate, gets valued off historical multiples and has dilution baked in.
Bear, base and bull 2030 targets for all 7 are on my Substack below.
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The original is long; open it to read in full
Reasoning: Fundamentals · Long term Specific
Price at post time (as recorded): $CIEN 444.01
My photonics fund is getting lit up today with its $1.4M $CIEN allocation.
The stock is flying 10% today because $MRVL's investor day presentation attributed a guidance raise to connectivity (including from 1.6T DSPs) that indicates higher scale-across demand for $CIEN.
The stock is up 34% since @AsymmetricBets_ said the September earnings reaction "went too far".
2600+ investors hold this name with me as a 7% weighting in my Photonics Is Next portfolio on 
@joinautopilot, with $19M AUM.
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The original is long; open it to read in full
Reasoning: Catalyst · Short term Specific
Price at post time (as recorded): $CIEN 432.83
Fund flows or trade records mentioned in posts reflect only the account’s own claims, are marked “Per the post” and are unverified.
@michaelsikand
@KawzInvests