LITE

Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. There's too many potential second/third order effects that's hard to map due if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle (given contractual obligations). Rate hikes understandably amplifies a lot of those fears. But I do think everything getting sold off together presents opportunities. If $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers and is being financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. The demand visibility + financing (with counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) are too solid that I wouldn't bunch companies in the optical sector together (that already have cash on hand via ATMs or private placement). With a neocloud that requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. I think markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than just treating everything as one "bubble".

Wow, Largan Chairman dropped a nuke and stated MicroLEDs unlikely to become viable for AI DC buildouts As for what's up and coming... Feels like $AMD, $NVDA, and everyone in the industry is clearly going out of their way to procure CW laser supply this year. EML was the market's focus last year with $LITE / $COHR (and still partially is). But future architectures with microleds was something to keep watch for 2028 onwards... Since $CRDO was pretty focused on it with their acqusition of Hyperlume, $AMS Osram was a popular name (working with Credo too), hyperscalers like $MSFT were developing in the space too. Largan is also a $TSM COUPE supply chain player that does FAU like Foci/microlens/passive components, so they're more impartial. But yeah... was a surprise to see Largan Chairman citing concerns over "power consumption, size, and transmission efficiency" for microled commercialization and said it's unlikely to become viable. (source: Digitimes) TLDR: -> MicroLED as a technology unlikely to become viable from Largan Chairman -> If it turns out correct, indirectly positive for lasers like VCSEL, then CW/SiPH since there's some overlap for CPO scale up applications

$LITE showing the ecosystem forming around near-package optics. Open CPX founders include Ciena $CIEN, Coherent $COHR and Marvell $MRVL, alongside Molex, Samtec and TeraHop. Publicly traded contributors shown here include Credo $CRDO Intel $INTC MaxLinear $MXL Applied Optoelectronics $AAOI Astera Labs $ALAB Amphenol $APH Keysight $KEYS TE Connectivity $TEL VIAVI $VIAV Lumentum $LITE NPO reuses the existing pluggable supply chain, making it much easier to scale.

Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of memory capacity spanning until 2031. $LITE is completely sold out into 2029 and with customers starting to lock in orders for 2030. There's the actual demand. Then there's short term media narratives that cause people to sell. There's been many scares over the past few years over $NVDA GPUs from Deepseek to macro but in the end fundamentals matter more.

What oversupply? Even in the lower end ranges that they're focusing on, Chinese pluggable makers like Innolight are still bottlenecked for 70-100mW ranges from ECOC channel checks. Cambridge wouldn't be going out financing suppliers with convertible loans for scarce laser capacity. Suppliers wouldn't be raising ASPs if there was overcapacity. Also not all CW lasers are the same. China is a ways away from from scaling UHP lasers needed for CPO, which is why there's still premiums given to $LITE, $COHR, $SIVE. $LITE lasers are sold out into 2029 and they're starting negotiations into 2030. I don't think anyone genuinely believes that China will flood the laser markets medium term, even both $LITE / $AAOI CEO said there was a difference between comments made and what they're actually seeing. From AOI on China: "of them, they are working maybe 70 mW or very few can really do 100 mW. For 300 mW laser, especially DWDM spec, we don't see that." "Not in the next two, three years, especially the demand is so big. Okay? Even combined AOI, Lumentum, Coherent, Broadcom all together, it's still very tough to meet the customer demand in the next few years" From Lumentum last month: "At least at the moment, we see no impact from any Chinese laser supply." But whenever markets want a correction people just blindly point to China with memory or optics while ignoring what's actually occurring with demand imbalances + LTAs spanning many years and constantly extending.

Sure... Random train of thoughts on markets now, optics like $LITE / memory + $IREN / Anthropic. On Memory: - Demand visibility on $MU / Samsung / SK Hynix extend into 2030-2031. Samsung has LTAs covering 70% of their capacity into 2031 (likely with SK Hynix type price floors)... and their operating profit is already absurd. There's a consensus that shortage in 2027 will be much more severe than 2026... Even $SNDK expends gross margins to exceed 80% entering 2030. You're going to hear Acer and other CEOs that want memory prices to go down cite bear cases like CXMT/YMTC, and Chinese players. But just looking at supply procurement that $NVDA is doing + hyperscalers, demand visibility is absurd for the next 5 years. And by that time, cumulative FCF coming in from these take/pay + pricing floor contracts might exceed some of their entire marketcaps so it feels like there's some baseline. Near-term is always volatile (IV dropped a ton across $EWY to $DRAM to $MU), so people with call options likely got nuked, along with underlying prices. But if Samsung is 3x 2027E, has 5 year LTAs with 70% of capacity committed from hyperscalers, and price floors, it's kinda hard to see these names suffer a sustained crash... For optics: - $LITE is literally sold out into 2029, starting discussions into 2030. With demand visibility lasting into 2031… with hyperscalers largely funding the capacity buildout. Their 2028 Greensboro fab expansion was ~$5B in UHP laser capac