@Mr_Derivatives: recently weak names $NKE, $MCD, $TLT and $NFLX are all popping today.
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$NKE $MCD $TLT $NFLX All the recent trashy names poppin’ today.
Reasoning: Technicals
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TLT
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETFClear split
Stance mix of tracked accounts 11 accounts mentioned it · latest post counts
BullishNeutralNo stanceBearish
Bullish
3
Neutral
4
No stance
0
Bearish
4
| Accounts | Bull | Neu | Bear | None |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 @RedDogT3Views › | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
 @ripster47Views › | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 @sentimentraderViews › | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 @leadlagreportViews › | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
 @alphatrendsViews › | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 |
 @LukeGromenViews › | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
 @carlquintanillaViews › | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
 @UrbanKaoboyViews › | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| @Mr_DerivativesViews › | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 @SchuldensuehnerViews › | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 @RyanDetrickViews › | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Consensus and splits Reasons (analyst tagged) and views from the past 14 days
Bull case
- 1Valuation
- 1Technicals
- 1Macro
- 1Sentiment
- @RyanDetrick: @RyanDetrick: yields are collapsing, days after a cover story asked if bonds would blow up.
- @Schuldensuehner: @Schuldensuehner: Sept PPI jumped 1.3% m/m, the most since Mar 2022 and double the 0.6% expected; annual 6.3%, core ex food, energy and trade 5%. Yet Treasuries rallied, as investors worry more about the AI selloff hurting growth.
- @Mr_Derivatives: @Mr_Derivatives: $TLT has looked decent lately, rising from the $76s to almost $81.
Bear case
- 7Macro
- 1Technicals
- @LukeGromen: @LukeGromen, replying to @leadlagreport: the surprise is that stocks back the bonds, so if stocks crash, bonds will too.
- @leadlagreport: 1994 is the closest rhyme to this bond market and it hurt without a recession. Then the 10-year rose 286bp, stocks went nowhere, expansion ran to 2001. Now +127bp since Feb, core CPI consensus 2.5%. Falsifier: $TLT rallies and 10-year under 5%.
- @UrbanKaoboy: Michael Kao notes it didn’t even need an intervention to turn this $TLT around. That actually concerns him about the broader economy and markets.
Clear split. Accounts are on both sides; see the two columns above for where they differ.
Current views Each account’s latest stance and reasoning; change is vs that account’s previous call
Heisenberg @Mr_DerivativesViews ›
@Mr_DerivativesViews ›Neutral weakened (was Bullish)
Technicals · @Mr_Derivatives: recently weak names $NKE, $MCD, $TLT and $NFLX are all popping today.
@Mr_Derivatives: recently weak names $NKE, $MCD, $TLT and $NFLX are all popping today.2026-10-15 22:00 HKT Original post ↗
Ryan Detrick, CMT @RyanDetrickViews ›
@RyanDetrickViews ›Bullish First call
Sentiment · Short term · @RyanDetrick: yields are collapsing, days after a cover story asked if bonds would blow up.
@RyanDetrick: yields are collapsing, days after a cover story asked if bonds would blow up.2026-10-15 21:13 HKT Original post ↗
Holger Zschaepitz @SchuldensuehnerViews ›
@SchuldensuehnerViews ›Bullish First call
Macro · Short term · @Schuldensuehner: Sept PPI jumped 1.3% m/m, the most since Mar 2022 and double the 0.6% expected; annual 6.3%, core ex food, energy and trade 5%. Yet Treasuries rallied, as investors worry more about the AI selloff hurting growth.
@Schuldensuehner: Sept PPI jumped 1.3% m/m, the most since Mar 2022 and double the 0.6% expected; annual 6.3%, core ex food, energy and trade 5%. Yet Treasuries rallied, as investors worry more about the AI selloff hurting growth.2026-10-15 21:08 HKT Original post ↗
Neutral First call 7d: strengthened
Technicals · @RedDogT3 says the $TLT relationship changed yesterday.
@RedDogT3 says the $TLT relationship changed yesterday.2026-10-15 20:39 HKT Original post ↗
Michael A. Gayed, CFA @leadlagreportViews ›
@leadlagreportViews ›Bullish reversed (was Bearish)
Valuation · Long term · (Reposted by @leadlagreport) @douglasritz thinks many advisors do not understand the value of a 5% yield on a long duration Treasury.
@leadlagreport) @douglasritz thinks many advisors do not understand the value of a 5% yield on a long duration Treasury.2026-10-15 19:51 HKT Original post ↗
Luke Gromen @LukeGromenViews ›
@LukeGromenViews ›Bearish First call
Macro · Medium term · @LukeGromen, replying to @leadlagreport: the surprise is that stocks back the bonds, so if stocks crash, bonds will too.
@LukeGromen, replying to @leadlagreport: the surprise is that stocks back the bonds, so if stocks crash, bonds will too.2026-10-15 04:29 HKT Original post ↗
Brian Shannon, CMT @alphatrendsViews ›
@alphatrendsViews ›Neutral First call
Basis not tagged · Daily end-of-day video promo for X subscribers covering $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SMH $TLT Bitcoin $GLD $XLF $XLE.
2026-10-15 04:23 HKT Original post ↗
Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboyViews ›
@UrbanKaoboyViews ›Bearish First call
Macro · Medium term · Michael Kao notes it didn’t even need an intervention to turn this $TLT around. That actually concerns him about the broader economy and markets.
2026-10-15 01:24 HKT Original post ↗
Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanillaViews ›
@carlquintanillaViews ›Bearish First call
Macro · Short term · (Reposted by @carlquintanilla) 
@DeItaone: Harley Bassman warns that if the 20 year Treasury yield rises above 6% (now near 5.6%), hedging could trigger selling equal to $110 billion of bond issuance, with negative convexity risk at levels unseen since 2007.
@carlquintanilla) @DeItaone: Harley Bassman warns that if the 20 year Treasury yield rises above 6% (now near 5.6%), hedging could trigger selling equal to $110 billion of bond issuance, with negative convexity risk at levels unseen since 2007.2026-10-14 01:41 HKT Original post ↗
SentimenTrader @sentimentraderViews ›
@sentimentraderViews ›Bearish First call
Macro · Long term · TLT remains in an unfavorable long-term rate regime. The JK Interest Rate Model is still at +2, a regime in which TLT historically declined, though the model does not time exact turning points.
https://users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppelscorner/tracking-bonds-with-the-jk-interest-rate-model
2026-10-09 22:30 HKT Original post ↗
Ripster @ripster47Views ›
@ripster47Views ›Neutral First call
Catalyst · $TLT Bonds on bounce and $TNX yields dropping since Open AI news
Some rotation in banks & biotech
2026-10-09 01:30 HKT Original post ↗
Background How the narrative evolved over time, for context on current views
By week Last 4 weeks
- 10/10–10/16 · 19 posts · Bull 4 / Bear 6@Mr_Derivatives: @Mr_Derivatives: recently weak names $NKE, $MCD, $TLT and $NFLX are all popping today. (Neutral)
- 10/3–10/9 · 3 posts · Bull 0 / Bear 2@sentimentrader: TLT remains in an unfavorable long-term rate regime. The JK Interest Rate Model is still at +2, a regime in which TLT historically declined, though the model does not time exact turning points.
https://users.sentimentrader.com/users/kaeppelscorner/tracking-bonds-with-the-jk-interest-rate-model (Bearish)
- 9/26–10/2 · 0 posts · Bull 0 / Bear 0No discussion
- 9/19–9/25 · 0 posts · Bull 0 / Bear 0No discussion
Key views and how they evolved Newest first
@RyanDetrick: yields are collapsing, days after a cover story asked if bonds would blow up.
See original
Yields are absolutely collapsing right now. Days after a cover story asked if bonds were going to blow up.
Reasoning: Sentiment · Short term
@Schuldensuehner: Sept PPI jumped 1.3% m/m, the most since Mar 2022 and double the 0.6% expected; annual 6.3%, core ex food, energy and trade 5%. Yet Treasuries rallied, as investors worry more about the AI selloff hurting growth.
See original
US inflation is running hot, but bonds are rallying. Sep PPI jumped 1.3% MoM, the most since Mar 2022 and more than double the 0.6% expected. Annual inflation hit 6.3%; core excluding food, energy & trade reached 5%. Yet Treasuries barely flinched. Investors seem more worried about the AI selloff hurting growth than inflation pushing yields higher.
Reasoning: Macro · Short term
@Mr_Derivatives: $TLT has looked decent lately, rising from the $76s to almost $81.
See original
$TLT Lookin’ actually decent lately from $76’s to almost $81’s.
Reasoning: Technicals · Short term Specific
@RedDogT3 says the $TLT relationship changed yesterday.
See original
$TLT relationship changed yesterday
Reasoning: Technicals
(Reposted by @leadlagreport) @douglasritz thinks many advisors do not understand the value of a 5% yield on a long duration Treasury.
See original
@leadlagreport I think that there‘s a whole lot of advisors who do not understand the value of 5% on a long duration treasury.
Reasoning: Valuation · Long term
No-stance mentions (1)
Stock Market Analysis for Week Ending 10/9/26 $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SMH $XBI $MU $NVDA $XLF $TLT #Bitcoin $ALAB $NKE $MAGS
Reasoning: Not tagged by analyst Specific
Fund flows or trade records mentioned in posts reflect only the account’s own claims, are marked “Per the post” and are unverified.