Neutral strengthened (was Bearish) 7d: weakened
Macro · Beth Kindig believes this bull market has considerably more room to run. However, before the next leg higher begins, a correction is expected that will shake many investors out of the trade, and the main AI proxy $SMH appears to be confirming this view. Mentions $SPY $QQQ.
Bullish strengthened (was Neutral)
Technicals · Short term ·
@OptionsHawk notes a nice rip off the July AVWAP level on $ES_F.
Bullish First call
Sentiment · Short term ·
@OddStats: 8 times since 1978 SPX ended a 53+ day streak without a -1% day and then had another down day; all 8 times SPX was higher 3 days later, by +1.9% on average.
Bearish First call
Macro · Medium term ·
@UrbanKaoboy: the debt governor is in charge; the biggest threat to his disinflationary growth view is the AI buildout's overdependence on debt financing, like the dot com cycle. Rising long end rates have pulled the bond floor from under equities.
Neutral First call
Technicals ·
@TrendSpider: a 3 month ascending wedge on $SPY is getting very tight.
Neutral First call
Technicals ·
@MrZackMorris premarket Oct 15: $SPY 767.15 (-0.3%), PM range 768.25/764.10; $QQQ 719.63 (-1.3%), PM range 728.40/717.00; ES -0.35%, NQ -1.28%.
Bearish First call 7d: weakened
Technicals · Short term ·
@RedDogT3 is 98% in cash and not buying the dip: while the S&P 500 was about 1% below highs, the average S&P stock was down roughly 18% and many momentum names fell 50% to 70%; he sees more downside in $SPY and $QQQ.
Bullish strengthened (was Neutral)
Sentiment · Short term ·
@spotgamma: after the 18 bigger VVIX jumps of the last two years, SPX was higher 5 days later 13 times, median +1.7%, notable with OPEX tomorrow.
Neutral First call
Sentiment ·
@OptionsMike: a very hot PPI number but the market is mostly unchanged, a strange reaction.
Neutral weakened (was Bullish)
Technicals · Medium term · (Reposted by
@carlquintanilla)
@KevRGordon: the Russell 2000 is down about 11% from its high while the S&P 500 is barely off its high; the last similar spreads were late 2024 and late 2021.
Bearish First call 7d: weakened
Macro · Short term ·
@leadlagreport: stocks fell 1.1% on CPI day while the 10 year fell 14bp from its post CPI high; stocks down and bonds bid is a growth scare, pricing the damage a hike does.
Neutral weakened (was Bullish)
Macro ·
@LizAnnSonders shares the correlation between the 10 year yield and the S&P 500.
Neutral First call
Macro ·
@Mr_Derivatives: rates are getting decimated, with the 10 year yield falling from 5.34% to 5.08%, but it is not helping equities.
Neutral First call
Fundamentals · Medium term · (Quoted) Watch $MU and $NVDA; together Micron and Nvidia are expected to contribute 9.8 percentage points or 36% of the S&P 500's projected 27.2% Q3 earnings growth.
Neutral weakened (was Bullish) 7d: weakened
Sentiment · More bears than bulls on the AAII survey again. This is now 11 of the past 13 weeks, with the majority of those weeks the S&P 500 within 3% of an ATH.
Neutral First call 7d: weakened
Fundamentals · $TSMC (-1.7%) delivered better-than-expected +44% FY’26 revenue outlook (up from +40%) but failed to ease AI buildout sustainability concerns; other chips falling in sympathy as tech is 40% of S&P500. High-growth healthcare like $LLY seen as beneficiaries; $LLY +1.5% pre-mkt after +3.6% prior day on oral GLP-1 momentum, expects raised FY2026 rev guidance on Oct 29 earnings.
Bearish First call
Technicals · Short term ·
@KeithMcCullough: volume accelerated during yesterday's selloff.
Bearish First call
Valuation · Medium term ·
@Callum_Thomas, replying to
A@albertedwards99: record valuations and investor allocations are underpinned by booming earnings; if the cycle turns, earnings go and it will hurt.
Neutral First call
Macro · Clearly a macro related drop after CPI numbers came out today and further US rate hike anticipation. Since $KOSPI, $SPY, and Nikkei ended up plummeting. Too many potential second/third order effects if $CRWV goes down or frontier labs struggle. Rate hikes amplify fears but sold-off presents opportunities. $LITE has take/pay contracts + sold out until 2029 for lasers, financed by hyperscalers for 2031 demand. Demand visibility + financing (counterparties like $MSFT or $AMZN) too solid to bunch with others in optical sector that have cash. Neocloud requires billions in future toxic financing in high rate environments. Markets will eventually distinguish nuances from actual profitability, financing, and long term demand sustainability rather than treating everything as one bubble.
Bearish First call
Sentiment · Medium term ·
@John_Hempton: the S&P 500 is 1.3% off its record close and the Australian index 5.9% off; this is not even a correction, let alone a bear market, and the eventual drop will be painful.
Neutral First call
Sentiment ·
@michaelsikand: 2026 is the year the KOSPI became more relevant to market sentiment than the S&P 500.
Neutral First call
Basis not tagged ·
@IBDinvestors: no stock has beaten the S&P 500 every year.
Neutral strengthened (was Bearish)
Technicals · BREAKING: Trading volume in the S&P 500 ETF $SPY fell to just 22.6 million shares on Friday, the lowest for a full trading day since November 25th, 2005. Excluding holiday sessions, lowest since October 11th, 2004. Compared to below 20 million on Dec 24 2019 half-day.
Bearish weakened (was Neutral)
Technicals · Short term ·
@ripster47, replying to
B@BlueMoonTrades, says the selloff looks like there is more to come and he closed a bunch of longs.
Neutral weakened (was Bullish)
Basis not tagged · Big rotation today: Health Care $XLV and Consumer Staples $XLP both rose over 2.2% while the S&P 500 dropped 1.1% and Tech $XLK nearly 3%.
Bearish First call
Macro · Medium term ·
@LukeGromen, replying to
@leadlagreport: the surprise is that stocks back the bonds, so if stocks crash, bonds will too.
Neutral First call
Basis not tagged · Daily end-of-day video promo for X subscribers covering $SPY $QQQ $IWM $SMH $TLT Bitcoin $GLD $XLF $XLE.
Bullish First call
Sentiment · Short term ·
@kevinxu: some are panic selling into what could be the greatest earnings season of our lifetime.
Bullish First call
Technicals · Short term · $SPY $SPX hit a good R/R spot for a bounce IMO
Bullish First call
Sentiment · Short term ·
@jimcramer: stock traders seem oblivious to the change in interest rates; he is looking for a short covering rally.
Neutral First call
Basis not tagged ·
@Greenbackd: since ~2023 the largest S&P 500 companies have strongly outperformed, shown by the equal weight minus cap weight trailing 12 month return; diversifying away from them has carried a cost.
Neutral weakened (was Bullish)
Basis not tagged ·
@awealthofcs: the top 10 S&P 500 holdings are 40% of market cap today, versus 26% in 1980, 20% in 1990, 24% in 2000, 19% in 2010 and 25% in 2020.
Neutral weakened (was Bullish)
Sentiment ·
@sentimentrader: $SPX is near record highs while SKEW stays elevated. On Oct. 13, $SPX closed just 0.2% below its record with SKEW at 154.74. Stocks remain strong, but options are still pricing elevated downside tail risk.
Neutral First call 7d: weakened
Basis not tagged · (Reposted by
@InvestorsLive) Morning Broadcast - Watchlist Prep - $SPY $BTC $QQQ
Neutral First call
Fundamentals · Short term · $KBWB (bank ETF) -12.4% from 8/14 through yesterday while S&P +0.3%. Despite mixed results, $JPM -0.9%; $WFC -3.1%; $C -5.6%; $GS -0.2% all fell today with KBWB -1.4%. Remains circumspect into Q3 earnings given poor start from this sector.
Neutral weakened (was Bullish) 7d: weakened
Technicals ·
@Jake__Wujastyk flags an interesting setup in $SPY into CPI (also tagged $SPX $ES_F, mapped to $SPY).
Bullish First call
Macro · Medium term ·
@StockSavvyShay: recession odds are at a new low of 21% as companies slow hiring rather than lay off workers, while corporate profit optimism is at a record high. A stable labor market plus strong business expectations point to more room for growth.
Neutral First call
Basis not tagged ·
@MichaelKantro: their S&P 500 Macro Select index (sector neutral, equal weight, 50 stocks chosen by business cycle) is up ~30% YTD, beating both cap and equal weight indexes. It is a paper portfolio excluding trading fees.
Bearish weakened (was Neutral)
Valuation · Medium term ·
@amitisinvesting quotes Paul Tudor Jones: 2027 will be very challenging for the market; it feels exactly like 1999, good short term but not long term. He will be short the whole year, citing little value and heavy issuance like 1998 to 2002.
Bearish reversed (was Bullish)
Valuation · Long term ·
@charliebilello: over the last 7 years the S&P 500 returned 16.9% annualized versus 0.4% for US bonds, a record ~17% spread; investors should not expect a repeat over the next 7 years.
Bearish First call
Technicals · Short term ·
@steve_hanke: 72% of S&P 500 stocks were above their 50 day average in late July, 21% by end of September and 33% today; the market rises while breadth falls, yellow lights flashing.
Neutral First call
Macro · (Reposted by
@jam_croissant) The $SPX can rise while stocks inside get crushed. Roughly 58% of S&P 500 stocks are down 20% or more, and 45% had negative beta over the past three months.
Neutral First call
Macro · Replying to
@biancoresearch: Concentration is only part of the story. Over the past year the rolling 6-month correlation has turned slightly negative, another sign the headline index conceals two different market experiences. No specific stock mentioned.
Neutral First call
Macro · Money market inflows were $166B last week - the most since April 2020. Cumulative annual inflows now past the $1T mark. This while $SPX multiples have fallen 17% YTD with earnings up double digits.
No stance
Basis not tagged · 👀
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