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ASML

ASML Holding N.V.Partly aligned
Close 1,640.19 (2026-10-15)28 days +0.6%1Y +62.4%28 d mentions 21

Stance mix of tracked accounts 14 accounts mentioned it · latest post counts

BullishNeutralNo stanceBearish
Bullish
7
Neutral
2
No stance
3
Bearish
2
Accounts BullNeuBearNone
@RedDogT3Views ›0001
@SJosephBurnsViews ›0001
@garyblack00Views ›1001
@Mr_DerivativesViews ›0001
@bespokeinvestViews ›0100
@ripster47Views ›0020
@KawzInvestsViews ›2000
@StockSavvyShayViews ›2000
@jimcramerViews ›0100
@TrendSpiderViews ›1000
@Brian_Stoffel_Views ›1010
@TrungTPhanViews ›1101
@OptionsMikeViews ›0010
@TheTranscript_Views ›1000

Consensus and splits Reasons (analyst tagged) and views from the past 14 days

Bull case
  • 7Fundamentals
  • 1Macro
  • 1Valuation
  • @TheTranscript_: $ASML CEO sees genuine semiconductor equipment demand rather than customers exaggerating orders. He stated that when referring to demand, they mean demand believed to be real and not inflated by any potential buying behavior from customers.
  • @TrungTPhan: @TrungTPhan: ASML EUV delivery is extreme: each machine weighs 180 tons, fills up to 40 containers, and shipping takes 20 trucks and 3 Boeing 747s, with ASML teams on site for maintenance.
  • @KawzInvests: KawzInvests analyzes $CRWV Q2 10-Q, noting only 4% of ~$35B debt is at 15% ($1.3B loan due March 2028 being paid down). Actual blended interest ~8.4% including convertibles at ~2% and bonds at 9-10%. Main funding via customer-contract loans, e.g. Meta-backed at ~5.9%. AI trade intact; $ASML reported record Q3 profit, lithography demand outruns supply into 2027-28 even with +30% capacity/year, customers asking for 2029-30 slots. Demand outpaces supply. $CRWV $ASML
Bear case
  • 2Fundamentals
  • 1Catalyst
  • 1Macro
  • @OptionsMike: Good morning; futures mixed, PPI at 8:30. $TSM big beat. Ratings: $YSS Neutral @ Piper pt $9; $RDW Neutral @ Piper pt $11; $HAWK Overweight @ Piper pt $22; $CRUS downgraded to Sector Weight @ KeyBanc; $ASML pt cut to $2350 from $2400 @ JPM; $BLK pt raised to $1149 from $1435 @ JPM; $RBC pt cut to $48 from $195 @ RBC; $QNT upgraded to Buy @ MS pt $62.
  • @ripster47: AI trades collapsing in a few days due to hot CPI/inflation, $CRWV bond debacle/datacenter debt issue, $NBIS lawsuits, $ASML earning selloff, Anthropic ARR projections underwhelm, and charts getting ugly. Still to come: $TSM earnings and PPI. One of worst days for AI investors.
  • @Brian_Stoffel_: $ASML says that their supply will now NOT meet demand for 2027 or 2028.

Partly aligned. Accounts are on both sides; see the two columns above for where they differ.

Current views Each account’s latest stance and reasoning; change is vs that account’s previous call
Bullish First call
Fundamentals · Medium term · $ASML CEO sees genuine semiconductor equipment demand rather than customers exaggerating orders. He stated that when referring to demand, they mean demand believed to be real and not inflated by any potential buying behavior from customers.
2026-10-16 01:00 HKT Original post ↗
Bearish First call
Fundamentals · Good morning; futures mixed, PPI at 8:30. $TSM big beat. Ratings: $YSS Neutral @ Piper pt $9; $RDW Neutral @ Piper pt $11; $HAWK Overweight @ Piper pt $22; $CRUS downgraded to Sector Weight @ KeyBanc; $ASML pt cut to $2350 from $2400 @ JPM; $BLK pt raised to $1149 from $1435 @ JPM; $RBC pt cut to $48 from $195 @ RBC; $QNT upgraded to Buy @ MS pt $62.
2026-10-15 17:46 HKT Original post ↗
Bearish First call
Macro · Short term · AI trades collapsing in a few days due to hot CPI/inflation, $CRWV bond debacle/datacenter debt issue, $NBIS lawsuits, $ASML earning selloff, Anthropic ARR projections underwhelm, and charts getting ugly. Still to come: $TSM earnings and PPI. One of worst days for AI investors.
2026-10-15 07:09 HKT Original post ↗
Bullish strengthened (was Neutral)
Fundamentals · Long term · @TrungTPhan: ASML EUV delivery is extreme: each machine weighs 180 tons, fills up to 40 containers, and shipping takes 20 trucks and 3 Boeing 747s, with ASML teams on site for maintenance.
2026-10-15 04:34 HKT Original post ↗
Bullish First call
Fundamentals · Medium term · KawzInvests analyzes $CRWV Q2 10-Q, noting only 4% of ~$35B debt is at 15% ($1.3B loan due March 2028 being paid down). Actual blended interest ~8.4% including convertibles at ~2% and bonds at 9-10%. Main funding via customer-contract loans, e.g. Meta-backed at ~5.9%. AI trade intact; $ASML reported record Q3 profit, lithography demand outruns supply into 2027-28 even with +30% capacity/year, customers asking for 2029-30 slots. Demand outpaces supply. $CRWV $ASML
2026-10-15 01:22 HKT Original post ↗
Bullish reversed (was Bearish)
Valuation · Medium term · @Brian_Stoffel_: $ASML's valuation surprised him, as upward earnings revisions are starting to take effect.
2026-10-14 22:48 HKT Original post ↗
Bullish First call
Fundamentals · Short term · @TrendSpider: $ASML Q3 EPS $14.88 vs $12.47 est, sales $13.42B vs $13.18B est, and raised Q4 sales guidance.
2026-10-14 17:44 HKT Original post ↗
Bullish First call
Macro · @garyblack00: US stocks edged higher (SPX +0.2%, NDX flat) on strong $ASML results ahead of bank earnings and September CPI. Brent fell to $106, 10 year yield slipped to 5.19%, Bitcoin rose to $83.6K. ASML +2.5%; $BLK, $BAC and $MS report today.
2026-10-14 17:28 HKT Original post ↗
Neutral First call
Sentiment · @jimcramer: momentum traders in SK Hynix seem to be beating the research driven buyers of ASML, for now.
2026-10-14 17:28 HKT Original post ↗
Bullish First call
Fundamentals · Long term · $ASML customers are already trying to secure EUV machines for 2029 and 2030 even as production capacity expands, showing demand running far ahead of supply. Memory now accounts for ~51% of system sales as HBM adoption grows, while High-NA can replace multiple chipmaking steps with one.
2026-10-14 15:32 HKT Original post ↗
Neutral First call
Basis not tagged · Tomorrow brings results from ASML $ASML, Bank of America $BAC, BlackRock $BLK, Morgan Stanley $MS, Progressive $PGR, State Street $STT, and Fastenal $FAST, all before the open.
2026-10-14 05:30 HKT Original post ↗
No stance
Catalyst · @Mr_Derivatives, replying to @SPXVIX, lists upcoming catalysts in order: CPI, $ASML, $BAC, $MS, then $TSM.
2026-10-14 02:40 HKT Original post ↗
No stance
Basis not tagged · Lots of financial stocks are reporting earnings this week, including $WFC $BAC $JPM $UNH $ASML $GS $TSM $AA $DPZ $JNJ and many others. No specific stock mentioned as a view.
2026-10-13 16:48 HKT Original post ↗
Scott Redler @RedDogT3Views ›
No stance
Basis not tagged · REST UP! Big week coming with CPI PPI $JPM $GS $C $ASML $BAC $UNH and more! Get Monday's game plan: 📩 https://t3live.com/rd
2026-10-10 03:55 HKT Original post ↗
Background How the narrative evolved over time, for context on current views

By week Last 4 weeks

  • 10/10–10/16 · 21 posts · Bull 9 / Bear 4
    @TrungTPhan: @TrungTPhan: ASML EUV delivery is extreme: each machine weighs 180 tons, fills up to 40 containers, and shipping takes 20 trucks and 3 Boeing 747s, with ASML teams on site for maintenance. (Bullish)
  • 10/3–10/9 · 0 posts · Bull 0 / Bear 0
    No discussion
  • 9/26–10/2 · 0 posts · Bull 0 / Bear 0
    No discussion
  • 9/19–9/25 · 0 posts · Bull 0 / Bear 0
    No discussion

Key views and how they evolved Newest first

ASML Bullish2026-10-16 01:00 HKTOriginal post ↗

$ASML CEO sees genuine semiconductor equipment demand rather than customers exaggerating orders. He stated that when referring to demand, they mean demand believed to be real and not inflated by any potential buying behavior from customers.

See original

$ASML CEO sees genuine semiconductor equipment demand rather than customers exaggerating orders "I think that we -- when we talk about demand, when we refer to demand in those discussions, we really refer to demand we believe is real and not inflated by any potential buying behavior from our customers."

Reasoning: Fundamentals · Medium term

ASML Bearish2026-10-15 17:46 HKTOriginal post ↗

Good morning; futures mixed, PPI at 8:30. $TSM big beat. Ratings: $YSS Neutral @ Piper pt $9; $RDW Neutral @ Piper pt $11; $HAWK Overweight @ Piper pt $22; $CRUS downgraded to Sector Weight @ KeyBanc; $ASML pt cut to $2350 from $2400 @ JPM; $BLK pt raised to $1149 from $1435 @ JPM; $RBC pt cut to $48 from $195 @ RBC; $QNT upgraded to Buy @ MS pt $62.

See original

Good Morning! Futures mixed, PPI @ 8:30 $TSM Big beat $YSS int Neutral @ Piper pt $9 $RDW int Neutral @ Piper pt $11 $HAWK int Overweight @ Piper pt $22 $CRUS d/g Sector Weight @ KeyBanc $ASML pt cut $2350 from $2400 @ JPM $BLK pt raised $1149 from $1435 @ JPM $RBC pt cut $48 from $195 @ RBC $QNT u/g Buy @ MS pt $62

Reasoning: Fundamentals Specific

ASML Bearish2026-10-15 07:09 HKTOriginal post ↗

AI trades collapsing in a few days due to hot CPI/inflation, $CRWV bond debacle/datacenter debt issue, $NBIS lawsuits, $ASML earning selloff, Anthropic ARR projections underwhelm, and charts getting ugly. Still to come: $TSM earnings and PPI. One of worst days for AI investors.

See original

💡In Few Days AI Trades Collapsing > Hot CPI/Inflation > $CRWV Bond Debacle/Datacenter Debt issue > $NBIS Lawsuits > $ASML Earning Selloff > Anthropic ARR Projections Underwhelm >Charts Getting Ugly Still to come > $TSM Earnings & PPI One of worst days for AI investors

Reasoning: Macro · Short term

ASML Bullish strengthened2026-10-15 04:34 HKTOriginal post ↗

@TrungTPhan: ASML EUV delivery is extreme: each machine weighs 180 tons, fills up to 40 containers, and shipping takes 20 trucks and 3 Boeing 747s, with ASML teams on site for maintenance.

See original

The delivery process for ASML EUV is nuts, too: ▫️Each EUV weighs 180 tons ▫️A disassembled EUV takes up to 40 shipping containers ▫️Shipping it (mostly to Asia) takes 20 trucks and 3 Boeing 747s ▫️ASML teams must be on-the-ground to maintain them ▫️The minimum spend to house EUVs is $1B (machine, transportation, ongoing maintenance etc)

Image 1 ↗

Reasoning: Fundamentals · Long term

ASML Bullish2026-10-15 01:22 HKTOriginal post ↗

KawzInvests analyzes $CRWV Q2 10-Q, noting only 4% of ~$35B debt is at 15% ($1.3B loan due March 2028 being paid down). Actual blended interest ~8.4% including convertibles at ~2% and bonds at 9-10%. Main funding via customer-contract loans, e.g. Meta-backed at ~5.9%. AI trade intact; $ASML reported record Q3 profit, lithography demand outruns supply into 2027-28 even with +30% capacity/year, customers asking for 2029-30 slots. Demand outpaces supply. $CRWV $ASML

See original

$CRWV isn’t paying 15% interest. Only 4% of their debt costs that. I went through the Q2 10-Q line by line. Out of ~$35B in debt, exactly one loan sits at 15%. It’s $1.3B, due March 2028, and already being paid down. The 15% chart going around is the market yield on their 2032 bond. A higher yield doesn’t change what CoreWeave pays. It works like a mortgage. If you locked in at 3% and rates go to 7%, you’re still paying 3%. CoreWeave locked that bond at 9.625% and still pays 9.625%. What they actually pay > $6.6B of convertibles at ~2% > ~$10B of bonds at 9-10% > Most secured loans around 9% > ~8.4% blended across everything They have roughly $20B of 2026 capex left to fund, and 2027 will need more. Their main funding tool has been loans backed by customer contracts. The investment grade one backed by Meta priced around 5.9% in March. If they keep borrowing that way, I think the math holds. Zooming out, the AI trade still looks intact to me. $ASML reported record Q3 profit this morning and said lithography demand will outrun their supply in 2027 and 2028, even after adding ~30% capacity each year. Customers are already asking about 2029 and 2030 slots. Demand is still outpacing supply everywhere I look. $CRWV $ASML

Reasoning: Fundamentals · Medium term Specific

ASML Bullish reversed2026-10-14 22:48 HKTOriginal post ↗

@Brian_Stoffel_: $ASML's valuation surprised him, as upward earnings revisions are starting to take effect.

See original

$ASML's valuation surprised me These upward revisions are starting to take effect.

Image 1 ↗

Reasoning: Valuation · Medium term

No-stance mentions (5)
ASML No stance↻ Repost of @bearlyai2026-10-15 02:34 HKTOriginal post ↗

(Reposted by @TrungTPhan) @bearlyai: ASML's $400m EUV machine's light technology is so precise it could in theory hit your thumb with a laser pointer from the moon.

See original

Perhaps wildest fact of ASML’s $400m EUV machine: the light technology is so precise, it could (in theory) hit your thumb with a laser pointer from the moon.

Image 1 ↗

Reasoning: Not tagged by analyst

ASML No stance2026-10-14 02:40 HKTOriginal post ↗

@Mr_Derivatives, replying to @SPXVIX, lists upcoming catalysts in order: CPI, $ASML, $BAC, $MS, then $TSM.

See original

@SPXVIX Lmao!! My mind is all over the place. But ya first thing first! CPI, ASML, BAC, MS, then TSM…

Reasoning: Catalyst

ASML No stance2026-10-13 17:45 HKTOriginal post ↗

@garyblack00 says U.S. stocks were mixed pre-market (SPX flat, NDX -0.4%) as the global chip selloff hit Samsung and SK Hynix, Brent fell 1.5% to $105 and the 10-year yield eased 5.0bp to 5.19%, with Sept CPI due tomorrow and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking Friday. He notes S&P 2026 EPS estimates of $367 (+32% YoY) imply a 21.3x P/E and a 4.7% earnings yield still inverted versus Treasuries, a rare setup outside the late-1990s dot-com bubble, and expects yields to retreat as the Iran conflict ends. He stays cautious on $TSLA given its extended valuation, negative forward earnings revisions and competitors commoditizing autonomous driving, while $ASML and $TSM report later this week.

See original

U.S. stocks were mixed pre-market (SPX unchanged, NDX -0.4%) as the global chip selloff persisted, with Samsung and SK Hynix plunging in Asia. Brent fell 1.5% to $105 as Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi missiles and President Trump threatened to get involved on Saudi Arabia’s behalf. The 10-year treasury yield eased 5.0bp to 5.19%. Banks kick off Q3 earnings today followed by tech heavyweights $ASML and $TSM later this week. Sept CPI is due tomorrow, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks on Friday at an IMF-World Bank event. S&P 2026 EPS estimates of $367 continue to rise (+32% YoY) and imply a 21.3x P/E and 4.7% yield, remaining inverted versus Treasuries, a rare setup outside the late-1990s dot-com bubble. Treasury yields are expected to retreat as the Iran conflict ends. I remain cautious on TSLA given its extended valuation, negative forward earnings revisions, and autonomous driving commoditization by competitors.

Reasoning: Macro Specific

ASML No stance2026-10-13 16:48 HKTOriginal post ↗

Lots of financial stocks are reporting earnings this week, including $WFC $BAC $JPM $UNH $ASML $GS $TSM $AA $DPZ $JNJ and many others. No specific stock mentioned as a view.

See original

Lots of Financial Stocks reporting this earnings week: http://TradingTerminal.com/calendar via @MarketAtlas @BearBullTraders $WFC $BAC $JPM $UNH $ASML $GS $TSM $AA $DPZ $JNJ $C $IBKR $MS $SFNC $STT $TFC $HOMB $MRSH $CNS $FAST $FHN $CFG $SOTK $BNY $BSVN $PLD $NRDBY $WIT $USB $ERIC $AZZ $CMC $BLK $SCHW $MAN $ACI $FBK $EQBK $INDB $JBHT $MTB $PGR $TRV $WSE $WAFD $PNC $RF

Image 1 ↗

Reasoning: Not tagged by analyst

ASML No stance2026-10-10 03:55 HKTOriginal post ↗

REST UP! Big week coming with CPI PPI $JPM $GS $C $ASML $BAC $UNH and more! Get Monday's game plan: 📩 https://t3live.com/rd

Image 1 ↗

Reasoning: Not tagged by analyst Specific

Fund flows or trade records mentioned in posts reflect only the account’s own claims, are marked “Per the post” and are unverified.

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